Kenya Braces for Mixed March 2026 Long Rains Amid Persistent La Niña Influence, Posing Varied Agricultural Risks

Nairobi, Kenya – February 6, 2026 – Kenya's vital agricultural sector faces a complex and regionally diverse outlook for the March-May 2026 long rains season, as meteorological agencies forecast mixed rainfall patterns underscored by the lingering influence of a La Niña phenomenon. The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) have issued advisories pointing to significant regional disparities in precipitation, coupled with generally warmer-than-average temperatures across the nation. This climate intelligence is critical for stakeholders, particularly agricultural lenders, who must navigate heightened uncertainties in food production and farmer viability.

The March-May 2026 Long Rains Outlook: A Patchwork of Conditions

The Kenya Meteorological Department, in its seasonal outlook released on February 4, 2026, advised Kenyans to prepare for mixed rainfall patterns and higher-than-average temperatures during the March–April–May (MAM) 2026 long-rains season. The forecast indicates that while some regions are expected to receive near-average to above-average rainfall, others may record below-average totals, with uneven distribution across the country. Edward Muriuki, Acting Director of Meteorological Services, highlighted that the onset of the long rains is projected to be normal to late in many areas, with rainfall distribution likely to range from poor to fair, including intermittent dry spells.

Specifically, areas poised for near-average to above-average rainfall include the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Highlands East of the Rift Valley (encompassing Nairobi), the Rift Valley, and parts of north-western Kenya. This favorable outlook extends to at least 32 counties, such as Kakamega, Kisumu, Nakuru, Nairobi, Nyeri, and Meru, where rains are expected to continue from February, with cessation likely in June. Conversely, the Southeastern Lowlands, Northeastern Kenya, some north-western areas, and the entire coastal strip—including Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, and Lamu—are likely to experience near-average to below-average rainfall.

ICPAC, following the 72nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 72) held in Nairobi from January 26-27, 2026, largely corroborated this outlook. ICPAC projects a 45 percent probability of wetter-than-normal rainfall over central to western Kenya, aligning with KMD’s more optimistic forecast for these regions. However, ICPAC also reiterated the expectation of drier-than-normal conditions for coastal Kenya. Dr. Abdi Fidal, Director of ICPAC, underscored the importance of early warning systems, stating that they are “critical in mitigating climate risks”.

La Niña's Enduring Influence and Regional Disparities

The complex rainfall forecast for Kenya's long rains season is intricately linked to the persistence of a La Niña weather pattern, which forecasters anticipate will continue into early 2026, specifically through February or March. La Niña, characterized by cooler-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically brings wetter conditions to southern and central Africa. However, for East Africa, including Kenya, La Niña events are often associated with drier-than-usual conditions, particularly in the eastern and southeastern regions, frequently leading to droughts.

This general tendency for dryness in East Africa under La Niña conditions appears to be manifesting in the suppressed rainfall expected for Kenya’s coastal and southeastern lowlands. An overview from November 2025 explicitly anticipated dry conditions for East Africa from December 2025 to March 2026 due to La Niña. The eastern Horn of Africa, including parts of Kenya, already experienced one of the driest October-December (OND) rainy seasons on record, driven by La Niña conditions. The prevailing warmer-than-average temperatures across Kenya during the upcoming long rains season are also consistent with broader regional temperature trends observed during La Niña periods.

While long-range forecasts still carry considerable uncertainty regarding the precise transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions between January and June 2026, the current outlook suggests a nuanced impact. The expected above-average rains in central and western Kenya, despite the general La Niña influence, highlight the regional complexities and the interplay of other localized weather systems.

Agricultural Sector at a Crossroads

For Kenya's predominantly rain-fed agricultural sector, the mixed rainfall forecast presents a dual challenge. Regions expecting near-to-above-average rainfall, such as the Lake Victoria Basin and the Highlands, could see favorable conditions for key crops like maize, sorghum, and groundnuts, which are vital for food security. Good early rains are crucial for soil moisture and planting, supporting crop growth and grain filling. However, even in these areas, the KMD has warned of localized flood and landslide risks due to uneven distribution and potentially isolated heavy rainfall events. Excessive rainfall can lead to soil erosion, crop damage, and increased pest emergence, as observed in previous extreme weather events. The Ministry of Health has already issued an alert for potential outbreaks of cholera, typhoid, malaria, and respiratory illnesses in 32 counties expected to receive heavy rains, particularly in western and central Kenya.

Conversely, areas projected to receive below-average rainfall, including the Southeastern Lowlands and the Coast, face renewed risks of water stress and agricultural losses. The intermittent dry spells forecast across various regions could further exacerbate these challenges, impacting crop yields and pasture regeneration. Given that the March-May season makes a significant contribution to food production and water availability, a poor performance in these regions would deepen acute food insecurity, especially in areas still recovering from the historic drought of late 2020 to early 2023, which was exacerbated by La Niña. FEWS NET estimates that 20-25 million people across Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya are in need of humanitarian food assistance, with a below-average MAM season in 2026 threatening to worsen these outcomes considerably.

What This Means for Agricultural Lenders

Agricultural lenders in Kenya must adopt a highly granular and adaptive strategy in light of the varied climate forecast. The regional disparities in rainfall mean that a blanket lending approach carries significant risk. Lenders should:

* Enhance Regional Risk Assessment: Move beyond national averages to conduct detailed, sub-county level risk assessments. This requires leveraging localized climate data from KMD and ICPAC to understand specific rainfall probabilities, onset dates, and temperature anomalies for each agricultural lending portfolio segment. Differentiated risk profiles should be established for regions expecting above-average versus below-average rainfall. * Promote Climate-Smart Financing: Incentivize and finance climate-resilient agricultural practices. This includes supporting farmers in adopting drought-resistant crop varieties for drier regions, investing in efficient irrigation technologies, and promoting water harvesting solutions. For areas anticipating heavier rains, financing for improved drainage systems, early-warning flood mitigation, and disease prevention for livestock will be crucial. * Strengthen Agricultural Insurance Products: Collaborate with insurance providers to develop and promote parametric insurance products linked to localized rainfall triggers. This can provide a critical safety net for farmers in both deficit and excess rainfall areas, mitigating loan default risks. Lenders could explore bundling insurance with loan products. * Diversify Lending Portfolios: Consider diversifying exposure across different agro-ecological zones to balance risks. Reducing heavy concentration in regions consistently prone to adverse weather events under La Niña conditions (e.g., eastern and southeastern lowlands) and increasing exposure in more resilient or favorably forecast areas could enhance portfolio stability. * Facilitate Access to Market Information: Beyond weather, lenders should support farmers with access to market information, helping them make informed decisions on crop selection, planting times, and post-harvest management to maximize returns, especially in seasons with unpredictable yields.

Conclusion

The March-May 2026 long rains season in Kenya presents a complex climate scenario, heavily influenced by the persistent La Niña. While some agricultural regions may benefit from favorable rainfall, others face the specter of continued dryness or the challenges of excessive precipitation. For agricultural lenders, proactive engagement with these forecasts, coupled with innovative financial products and robust risk management, will be paramount to supporting Kenya's agricultural backbone and safeguarding food security in the face of evolving climate patterns.